Starting 2010 with some positive news

As we emerge from challenging times for real estate investors, there is good news in many aspects of the economy:

On October 9, 2007 the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit an all‐time high of 14,164. On March 9, 2009 the DJA hit the low point during the recession at 6,547. In just nine months the DJA has recovered just about half its losses and closed on December 9, 2009 at 10,337.

CEOs of American companies were surveyed and the results published in Business Roundtable’s Fourth Quarter 2009 CEO Economic Outlook Survey indicate that 68 percent predict that company sales will increase in the next six months, up sharply from the 51 percent who predicted sales growth just three months ago. "The economy is in the throes of a long transition back to health, recovery will be long, extending beyond 2010," said Ivan G. Seidenberg, chairman of the Business Roundtable and CEO of Verizon Communications. "The outlook for CEOs reflects that reality; we see noticeable gains in sales and capital spending…"

A survey produced by National Real Estate Investor and Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services shows that buyers are looking to re‐enter the market. The survey reported that 65 percent of survey respondents plan to increase their investment in commercial real estate in 2010, which is higher than the 56 percent in the third quarter and 51 percent tallied 12 months earlier. According to the 6th Annual Investment Survey, 72 percent of the survey respondents reported that they are setting aside capital for investment purposes. A total of 28 percent indicated they are already starting to make purchases while an additional 41 percent believe they will be adding to their portfolios in the next six months.

Barclays Wealth released the results of a global survey which revealed renewed confidence in commercial and residential real estate. Twice as many high net worth investors said they plan to increase their real estate portfolios over the next two years as compared to 17 percent that indicated they would decrease their real estate holdings. The global survey also indicated "the U.S. —where subprime mortgages were a key catalyst in sparking the wider recession—is deemed significantly more attractive than all other markets, with 16 percent of respondents saying they anticipated the best returns there."

National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun reported recently he expects home sales to rise in 2010 and even home prices to increase in some areas of the country. Activity in the residential real estate market has been bolstered this year by attractive pricing and low mortgage interest rates, but also by an $8,000 federal income tax credit. Recently, President Obama signed legislation that extends the $8,000 tax credit, which also included a new $6,500 federal tax credit for some existing homeowners, through April 30, 2010. Yun said, "Given the success of the first‐time buyer tax credit to date, and the need for qualified buyers to continue to absorb inventory that will include additional foreclosures over the coming year, we are hopeful about the impact of the expanded tax credit because it will stabilize home prices. In fact, the credit is working better than first projected‐‐it now looks like we’ll have 2.3 million to 2.4 million first‐time buyers this year." Existing‐home sales are expected to total 5.01 million in 2009, a gain of 2.0 percent over last year, and then are forecast to rise 13.6 percent to 5.69 million in 2010. New home sales are projected at 397,000 this year, recovering to 549,000 in 2010. Housing starts, including multifamily units, should total 564,000 units this year but grow to 752,000 in 2010, NAR officials said.